Coutts SR, Helmstedt KJ, Bennett JR (in press) Invasion lags: The stories we tell ourselves and our inability to infer process from pattern. Diversity and Distributions. 2017;00:1–8. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12669
Keywords: alien species, dispersal, fragmentation, invasive species, lag phase, population spread, sleeper weeds
Csergő AM, Salguero‐Gómez R, Broennimann O, Coutts SR, Guisan A, Angert AL, Welk E, Stott I, Enquist BJ, McGill B, Svenning J-C, Violle C, Buckley YM (2017) Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants. Ecology Letter 20:969-980
Keywords: Climate change, COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database, demographic compensation, ecological niche models, matrix population models, population dynamics, spatial demography, species distribution models, species interactions–abiotic stress hypothesis, stress gradient hypothesis
SR Coutts, R Salguero‐Gómez, AM Csergő, Buckley YM (2016) Extrapolating demography with climate, proximity and phylogeny: approach with caution. Ecology Letters. doi
Keywords: COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database, comparative demography, damping ratio, elasticity, matrix population model, phylogenetic analysis, population growth rate, spatially lagged models.
Code and Data Set: Data set, and analysis and plotting scripts
van Klinken RD, Panetta FD, Coutts SR, Simon BK (2015) Learning from the past to predict the future: an historical analysis of grass invasions in northern Australia. Biological Invasions. doi:10.1007/s10530-014-0749-3
Keywords: Globalisation, Invasive plants, Introduction pathways, Lag phases, Pasture grass, Poaceae, Sleeper weeds, Transformers, Weed risk assessment.
Coutts SR, Yokomizo H (2014) Meta-models as a straightforward approach to the sensitivity analysis of complex models. Population Ecology 56:7-19
Keywords: Boosted regression trees, Generalized linear models, Meta-models, Population viability analyses, Simulation model.
Code and Data Set: Meta Model Code
Yokomizo H, Coutts SR, Possingham HP (2014) Decision science for effective management of populations subject to stochasticity and imperfect knowledge. Population Ecology 56:41-53
Keywords: Adaptive management, Information-gap decision theory, Monitoring, Stochastic dynamic programming, Uncertainty, Value of information analysis.
Coutts SR, Yokomizo H, Buckley YM (2013) The behaviour of multiple independent managers and ecological traits interact to determine prevalence of weeds. Ecological Applications 23:523-536
Keywords: African lovegrass, agent-based model, Eragrostis curvula, Human behaviour, landscape-scale invasive plant management, Nassella trichotoma, serrated tussock, social pressure, weed spread.
Code and Data Set: Farm decision model
van Klinken RD, Panetta FD, Coutts SR (2013) Are high-impact species predictable? An analysis of naturalised grasses in northern Australia. PLoS ONE 8(7): e68678. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0068678
Keywords: Exotic grasses, Northern Australia, predicting impact, biosecurity.
Caplat P, Coutts SR, Buckley YM (2012) Modelling population dynamics, landscape structure, and management decisions for controlling the spread of invasive plants. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1249: 72-83
Keywords: Landscape, seed dispersal, exotic species, integrodifference equation, network theory.
Cash FBJ, Conn A, Coutts SR, Stephen M, Mason NWH, Anderson BJ, Wilson JB (2012) Assembly rules operate only in equilibrium communities: Is it true? Austral Ecology 37: 903-914
Keywords: Community structure, distance decay, disturbance, heterogeneity, species abundance distribution.
Coutts SR, Caplat P, Cousins K, Ledgard N, Buckley YM (2012) Reproductive ecology of Pinus nigra in an invasive population: individual- and population-level variation in seed production and timing of seed release. Annals of Forest Science 69:467-476
Keywords: Cone production, Individual variation, Pinus nigra, Seed abscission, Linear mixed-effects models, Negative binomial distribution, Seed traps.
Code and Data Set: Data sets and analysis
Caplat P, Coutts SR (2011) Integrating Ecological Knowledge, Public Perception and Urgency of Action into Invasive Species Management. Environmental Management 48: 878-881
Keywords: Conservation policy, Invasive management, Australia, Social integration.
Coutts SR, van Klinken RD, Yokomizo H, Buckley YM (2011) What are the key drivers of spread in invasive plants: dispersal, demography or landscape: and how can we use this knowledge to aid management? Biological Invasions 13: 1649-1661
Keywords: Boosted regression trees, Heterogeneous landscapes, Plant dispersal, Plant invasions, Sensitivity analysis, Simulation model.
Code and Data Set: Simulation code
Coutts SR (September 2013) Of actors, weeds and fence lines. Multiple decision makers and effective weed control. Decision Point #73
Keywords: Weeds, invasive species, cross boundary management.
Coutts SR (November 2012) Picture this: Adding value when communicating data and analysis. Decision Point #65
Keywords: Data visualisation, Edward Tufte.
Keywords: Pinus Nigra, reproductive ecology.
Note: Decision Point is non-technical publication from the Environmental Decisions Group. It is focused at policy makers and the general public, and currently has over 5000 readers, many of whom are in government agencies in Australia and around the world.