Extrapolating Demography: Approach With Caution

We often want to measure how populations will respond to an environmental change (such as global warming), the introduction of an invasive species, or a management intervention (such as the release of a bio-control agent). However, demographic data is time consuming and expensive to collect. Many individuals have to be tagged and their fates recorded … Read moreExtrapolating Demography: Approach With Caution

BES Beyond Demography Symposium: The Challenges of Prediction

Model performance and extrapolation between populations.

Last week I was at the BES Beyond Demography symposium. Looking at the speaker list it’s a who’s who of not just demography, but population and ecological modelling in general. One persistent topic across many of the talks and general hallway talk was how our population models often have very poor predictive power. This is a … Read moreBES Beyond Demography Symposium: The Challenges of Prediction